The only thing surprising about the Oscars is that we continue to talk of "surprises". Having been backstage at a few I can tell you that everyone knows who's going to win with 100% certainty, including the nominees. If you follow the various guild awards, etc., over a long and tedious prize-giving season, it's really not that difficult to work out. With the sole exception of Roger Ebert, with whom I once shared a rather cramped press table, and who was convinced 1996 was "going to be Babe's year", I don't know anyone in Hollywood who didn't read the tea leaves correctly. I've always enjoyed the fact that when Paul Newman won in 1987, his rivals watched it from the bar in the lobby.
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